Great podcast. I didn't realize there was a transcript until halfway through, and ended up listening to the audio in its entirety. Justin is a very engaging explainer. Maybe because the subject if of interest to me. I'm going to go back and make sure I didn't miss any articles.
I guess the Blue Labour guys are sort of your counterparts over in the UK but they don't seem to have any traction in the Labour government. There is some rhetoric but the actual Labour government policy seems like a mashup of New Labour (with the new budget plan), Remainers, and imperialist war mongers (which is faintly ridiculous given the actual capabilities of the UK) with enough elements of Great Replacement and 1984 to give the Right traction.
"... inflation, you know, spiked mostly because of the supply chain crisis ..."
Inflation spiked because first the Fed and then Congress (enabled by the Fed) flooded the system with money. This isn't some goldbug conspiracist talking. Just look at the numbers, and you'll see.
The "supply crisis" was and is vastly overstated. There were delays in deliveries of vehicles, and a few other things. Inflation was a monetary issue and nothing more than that. The Democrats are chronically unable to understand economic basics.
Your last sentence is definitely true but the supply crisis was and is a real thing. Lots of stuff I buy spiked in price or was simply unavailable which pushed the demand and inflation into near substitutes. This all happened before the big money dump other than the usual deficits.
There were at least two, and I think three, money dumps. I still have the two uncashed stimulus checks, and I think there was also a direct deposit. That started in the spring of '21. The checks offended me, so I skipped the $1,900.
No one found essentials and most discretionary items unobtainable. Prices went up because there was suddenly a tidal wave of money. The only exception that comes to mind was that some vehicle deliveries were delayed. In addition to inflation for food and other daily items, there was a huge asset bubble, seen most directly in residential real estate.
The asset bubble really started when the Fed went to "zero interest rates" after the Panic of 2008. That one was necessary at the time, but the Fed never sterilized the intervention. When covid hit, they really took it to the limit, and those checks and deposits were effectively what Bernanke once called dropping money from helicopters.
It distorted the economy, and the distortions are still there. Among other things, Fed policy masked the deindustrialization of America, which is shocking if you look at the numbers. We are in a much deeper hole than anyone wants to realize, and Trump's stated intention to bring manufacturing back to this country is not going to work because of the damage already done. Not only to the industrial base, but to basic education and the work ethic.
This will take many decades to try to fix, and will not be fixed within our lifetimes, if ever. In any case, to blame the inflation of '21-'24 on supply lines is fatuous, IMO. That was the Fed and Congress, the latter as I have pointed out facilitated by the Fed's purchase of Treasury notes. What I've just written tells only part of the story, but this comment is already too long.
TP is generally considered essential and that was the poster child for shortages. People used partial substitutes like kleenex and baby wipes driving those prices up and creating shortages. Neither is especially toilet friendly. Antiseptic spray also disappeared for an extended period. Meat was in short supply and an attempt was made to sell fake meat. DEF was difficult to obtain. Guns and ammo likewise. Later, baby formula disappeared. Different reason but definitely a supply chain disruption
There was never a toilet paper shortage. There was panic buying. We did it too, along with paper towels. We haven't bought any toilet paper or paper towels for five years. Maybe next year. We laugh about anal-retentive Americans, including ourselves. We still have enough TP to wipe the asses of a Third World village.
Same thing happened with guns and ammo. Panic buying. The FBI gun check numbers give a good idea of what happened. Ammo prices are back to where they were. I loaded up on ammo in late '19 when WA State looked like it would ban on-line ammo sales. My hoard went from 16,000 rounds to 33.000 rounds. Which sounds like a lot, but when you have 15 firearms it's not a bad idea to have a couple thousand for each one.
Baby formula shortages were the result of federal bungling, and had nothing to do with covid. I own a one-ton diesel pickup, and never had any trouble buying DEF. The price didn't go up. Hand sanitizer supply was a problem for a while, but that was very similar to toilet paper.
Great podcast. I didn't realize there was a transcript until halfway through, and ended up listening to the audio in its entirety. Justin is a very engaging explainer. Maybe because the subject if of interest to me. I'm going to go back and make sure I didn't miss any articles.
Suggestion: Run it through speech-to-text software. I can read much faster than I can listen.
There’s a transcript link at the top of the post on the site.
Found it. Thanks.
It was pretty hinky today. It regularly rendered tariffs as terrorists.
AI meh sorry
Speech to text software is shall we say imperfect. Always needs a human to look it over.
I guess the Blue Labour guys are sort of your counterparts over in the UK but they don't seem to have any traction in the Labour government. There is some rhetoric but the actual Labour government policy seems like a mashup of New Labour (with the new budget plan), Remainers, and imperialist war mongers (which is faintly ridiculous given the actual capabilities of the UK) with enough elements of Great Replacement and 1984 to give the Right traction.
"... inflation, you know, spiked mostly because of the supply chain crisis ..."
Inflation spiked because first the Fed and then Congress (enabled by the Fed) flooded the system with money. This isn't some goldbug conspiracist talking. Just look at the numbers, and you'll see.
You're both right. Do a money flood in the face of supply limits and it is double trouble.
The "supply crisis" was and is vastly overstated. There were delays in deliveries of vehicles, and a few other things. Inflation was a monetary issue and nothing more than that. The Democrats are chronically unable to understand economic basics.
Your last sentence is definitely true but the supply crisis was and is a real thing. Lots of stuff I buy spiked in price or was simply unavailable which pushed the demand and inflation into near substitutes. This all happened before the big money dump other than the usual deficits.
There were at least two, and I think three, money dumps. I still have the two uncashed stimulus checks, and I think there was also a direct deposit. That started in the spring of '21. The checks offended me, so I skipped the $1,900.
No one found essentials and most discretionary items unobtainable. Prices went up because there was suddenly a tidal wave of money. The only exception that comes to mind was that some vehicle deliveries were delayed. In addition to inflation for food and other daily items, there was a huge asset bubble, seen most directly in residential real estate.
The asset bubble really started when the Fed went to "zero interest rates" after the Panic of 2008. That one was necessary at the time, but the Fed never sterilized the intervention. When covid hit, they really took it to the limit, and those checks and deposits were effectively what Bernanke once called dropping money from helicopters.
It distorted the economy, and the distortions are still there. Among other things, Fed policy masked the deindustrialization of America, which is shocking if you look at the numbers. We are in a much deeper hole than anyone wants to realize, and Trump's stated intention to bring manufacturing back to this country is not going to work because of the damage already done. Not only to the industrial base, but to basic education and the work ethic.
This will take many decades to try to fix, and will not be fixed within our lifetimes, if ever. In any case, to blame the inflation of '21-'24 on supply lines is fatuous, IMO. That was the Fed and Congress, the latter as I have pointed out facilitated by the Fed's purchase of Treasury notes. What I've just written tells only part of the story, but this comment is already too long.
TP is generally considered essential and that was the poster child for shortages. People used partial substitutes like kleenex and baby wipes driving those prices up and creating shortages. Neither is especially toilet friendly. Antiseptic spray also disappeared for an extended period. Meat was in short supply and an attempt was made to sell fake meat. DEF was difficult to obtain. Guns and ammo likewise. Later, baby formula disappeared. Different reason but definitely a supply chain disruption
Try harder.
There was never a toilet paper shortage. There was panic buying. We did it too, along with paper towels. We haven't bought any toilet paper or paper towels for five years. Maybe next year. We laugh about anal-retentive Americans, including ourselves. We still have enough TP to wipe the asses of a Third World village.
Same thing happened with guns and ammo. Panic buying. The FBI gun check numbers give a good idea of what happened. Ammo prices are back to where they were. I loaded up on ammo in late '19 when WA State looked like it would ban on-line ammo sales. My hoard went from 16,000 rounds to 33.000 rounds. Which sounds like a lot, but when you have 15 firearms it's not a bad idea to have a couple thousand for each one.
Baby formula shortages were the result of federal bungling, and had nothing to do with covid. I own a one-ton diesel pickup, and never had any trouble buying DEF. The price didn't go up. Hand sanitizer supply was a problem for a while, but that was very similar to toilet paper.